Brexit and the Budget

by Malcolm McGready

I thought I had missed something so did a word search on the Chancellor’s

Budget speech. However, this confirmed my original observation; he managed to

deliver the entire speech without mentioning Brexit once.

Faced with the uncertainties over the outcome of the Brexit process possibly

the Chancellor thought better of mentioning it and also specifically aligning

particular policies with it.

However, mentioning the OBR’s upgraded GDP growth forecast for 2017 from 1.4%

to 2.0% gave the Chancellor some good news to report.  One must of course

remember that in the 2016 Spring Budget GDP growth was forecast to be 2.2% for

2017. Of course, it’s all a question of how things are presented.

Many businesses are dealing with the uncertainty caused by Brexit and from

reading the OBR’s report they are in exactly the same place as us. Their

economic modelling has necessarily had to include assumptions regarding the

impact of Brexit. The OBR make it clear that there is ‘no meaningful basis for

predicting the precise end-point of the negotiations as a basis for our

forecast’. Indeed, they go one to say that even if the outcome were predictable

that both the economic and fiscal implications would be subject to considerable

uncertainty.

It is interesting to read the OBR’s view of export growth. Export growth is

seen as a growth area for the UK economy with the current weakness in Sterling.

However, the forecast for export growth has been downgraded in 2017 and 2018 as

a result of weakening global demand, particularly in markets that the UK exports

to.  Indeed, one of the OBR’s ‘Brexit assumptions’ is that both export and

import growth will slow over the next 10 years and trading arrangements are put

in place post Brexit.

Against this back drop of uncertainty the Chancellor clearly felt it wise not

to major on Brexit in his speech. He also had little room to manoeuvre with the

current Government policy of deficit reduction and thus a ‘steady as she goes’

Budget was what we got. That said, he might at least have mentioned the decade

defining decision that is Brexit.

Author

Malcolm McGready

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